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The one number

The Gap.

The Gap is the distance between the percentage you predicted and the percentage of people who actually chose it. If you predicted 34% and the verified figure was 74%, your Gap for that situation is 40 points. That is the whole definition, and it is the only number Democrez produces.

One subtraction, nothing else.

Every Democrez round ends with two percentages. The first is yours: before seeing anything, you stated what share of people you thought chose the same option as you. The second is the verified aggregate: what share actually did. The Gap is the first subtracted from the second, without the sign.

It is deliberately a plain subtraction. There is no weighting, no confidence adjustment, no curve fitted across your history. Anything more elaborate would be a model of you, and Democrez does not build models of people — it reports what a population did and how far your expectation sat from it.

Both numbers describe people, not you. One is your estimate of a population you have never met. The other is what that population actually did.

The Gap
The absolute difference, in percentage points, between a person's predicted share and the verified share of people who chose that option. Reported per situation. Never summed, averaged into a score, or compared between people.

What it is not

  • Not an accuracy score. It is not stored as a running figure, and there is no lifetime number to improve.
  • Not a judgement of your choice. Your Gap would be identical whichever option you picked; it measures your reading of others, not your morality.
  • Not comparable between people. Two people with a Gap of 40 on different situations have not achieved the same thing, and Democrez never places them side by side.
  • Not a prediction about your future. It describes one situation that has already happened, and nothing beyond it.

Three shapes

A small Gap, a large Gap,
and a Gap in the other direction.

The same subtraction produces three quite different readings. Below, one situation from three territories, each carried to its collision. The numbers are illustrative — they are here to show the shape of the instrument, not to report real aggregates.

Example 1

A small Gap — you read the room

Money

A shopkeeper hands you ₹500 too much in change. You notice at the door.

Illustrative — not real data
61%You predicted
68%People chose

7points. You expected most people to walk back in, and most people did. A small Gap means your model of other people held up in this particular situation. It does not mean you are generally good at reading people, and Democrez will not tell you that.

Example 2

A large Gap — the useful one

Society

Someone collapses on a crowded platform. Several people are already looking.

Illustrative — not real data
29%You predicted
77%People chose

48points. You expected under a third of people to step forward; over three quarters did. This is the reading the instrument exists to produce — a place where your picture of other people was substantially wrong, in their favour.

Example 3

A Gap in the other direction

Career

A colleague asks you to sign off on work you have not actually checked.

Illustrative — not real data
72%You predicted
38%People chose

34points, with the pins reversed. You expected far more people to refuse than actually did. The Gap is the same kind of measurement either way — Democrez does not treat over-estimating people as better or worse than under-estimating them.

The point of the whole thing

A large Gap is not a failure.
It is the only useful result.

This is the part people find hardest, because every other product that shows you a number has trained you to want it small. Here the opposite is true, and it follows directly from what is being measured.

Nothing was tested

You were not asked a question with a correct answer. You were asked to estimate a population you have never met, from a life that is not theirs. A wrong estimate is a fact about the distance between your world and theirs.

A small Gap teaches you nothing

If your prediction matched, you have learned that a belief you already held was correct here. Useful, but you leave with the same picture of people you arrived with.

A large Gap is new information

It marks the exact place where your model of people and the record disagree. That is the only thing on this platform you could not have worked out by thinking harder on your own.

Nothing is kept against you

Your Gap is shown once and is not accumulated, averaged, ranked or compared. There is no figure that gets better or worse, because there is no figure at all.

Why we stop at the number

After the Gap appears, nothing follows. No explanation of what your answer says about you, no advice on judging people better, no suggestion of what to read next about yourself. That restraint is deliberate: the moment a measurement is followed by a verdict, people start answering to produce the verdict they want, and the measurement stops being one.

Improving how you read people may well be worth doing. It is simply not what this instrument does, and pretending otherwise would cost the thing that makes the number trustworthy. Why we mirror rather than judge.

The silent case

Sometimes no Gap appears at all.

A Gap requires a verified aggregate on the other side of it. When there is not enough real human response to produce one, Democrez shows nothing rather than something.

Below Min-N

Until a minimum number of verified people have answered a card, the aggregate stays hidden and no Gap is calculated. How Min-N works

Never estimated

The missing figure is not modelled, interpolated or generated. A Gap against an invented number would be worse than no Gap. Why we never fake it

Your answer still counts

Your response is appended to the record immediately. It contributes to the aggregate that other people will eventually collide with. The Reality Bank

It arrives later

Once the threshold is crossed, the card becomes readable. You are not notified, chased, or reminded to come back for it.

Questions

Straight answers.

What exactly is the Gap?

The Gap is the absolute difference, in percentage points, between the share of people you predicted would choose an option and the share that verifiably did. If you predicted 34% and the real figure was 74%, your Gap is 40 points. It is calculated per situation and reported once.

Is a smaller Gap better?

No, and the question does not really apply. A small Gap means your existing picture of people held up in that one case; a large Gap means it did not. Only the second one tells you something you did not already believe. Democrez does not rank the two.

Does a large Gap mean I judge people badly?

No. The Gap measures the distance between your expectation and a population's behaviour in one specific situation. It says nothing about your character, your ethics, or your ability generally, and Democrez makes no claim of that kind anywhere.

Are my Gaps added up over time?

No. There is no running total, no average, no lifetime figure and no history score. Each Gap belongs to the situation that produced it. Your past rounds remain readable to you as individual rounds, and nothing is computed across them.

Can I compare my Gap with someone else's?

No. There is no leaderboard, no ranking and no shared figure. Even inside a private circle reading, the group sees a collective picture of its disagreement rather than each member's Gap laid out for comparison.

What if my prediction is exactly right?

Then the Gap is zero for that situation, and the round ends the same way every other round ends. Nothing is awarded, no streak begins, and the next situation is unaffected.

Why is it called the Gap?

Because it names a distance rather than a performance. The word describes the space between two figures on a scale, which is precisely what is being reported — and unlike words such as accuracy or score, it does not smuggle in a verdict about the person reading it.

Find your own Gap.

One situation a day. Your prediction, locked. Then the distance.